Hong Kong

Hong Kong In The Time Of Coronavirus

At this time Hong Kong has a policy first of denying entry to anyone who is not a resident and for all of those who it does admit, requiring that they be tested for Covid-19 on arrival.  If the test is negative - everyone must submit to quarantine for 14 days.  If you're positive I'm sure it's some medical facility - a whole different process. 

Hong Kong is one of a few countries that have severe restrictions on entry.  Australia does and so do various European countries along with the US.  A few also impose mandatory quarantine periods, such as Australia.  The UK is threatening to - but seems unable to make decisions presently.

For Hong Kong, the quarantine is strict.  It is electronically monitored and in multi-person households, the quarantined is expected to be separated internally.

Permanent Residency

Specifically how does it work?  I have had occasion to find out: I am a Hong Kong Permanent Resident as the result of living and working there for seven years ending a few years ago.  As a legal residents for 7 years myself and my family had the right to apply for Permanent Residency which we did.  However, Hong Kong permanent residencies must be maintained: you lose the status if you are absent for a continuous 36 months.  Therefore, after we left, we agreed we would make sure we returned at least that often to maintain our residencies.

And then came Coronavirus.  Just exactly as that 36th month was approaching...

Travelling Through a Sick World

It was with great effort that we even managed to get flights to Hong Kong.  Of the total of 14 legs that were booked and paid for the trip to Hong Kong,  9 were cancelled without warning by the airlines.  These are large reputable airlines - it gives a window into the scale of the crisis that is befalling them.  

Some of the legs I rebooked to what became my eventual flights.  I have hope that for some of the other legs I'll get refund.  For some that has already been denied - I'll get "credit".  I can't blame the airlines - they must hoard their cash.  It's a desperate battle between them for survival.  It looks like we'll lose Virgin's airlines - Virgin Australia is gone already.  I think a Lehman Brothers scale shock may happen - British Airways?  Lufthansa?  Cathay??? Many will be restructured or nationalized. 

The airports we saw on the trip the were striking in their emptiness.  In places normally bustling with tourists and business people there's almost no-one.  For the few we saw we wondered what they were doing there - and they wondered, presumably, about us.  Most shops were shut.  One or two duty-free with deathly bored staff.  They may be wondering how long they'll have jobs.  A couple of cafés, social distancing markers installed, plastic barriers and counter serving only.  All the restaurants and pubs, many that would normally serve all day - shut and shuttered.  Will they open again?

On our flights everyone had to wear a face mask.  You couldn't even enter the airports without one.  Nevertheless there were always a few not wearing them.  This irritates me.  The reason you wear a mask is to stop you infecting others principally - so do they just not give a crap?  I find it offensive.  Even on the aircraft there were several not wearing their masks.  The staff didn't make any effort to encourage them - though, when mine slipped below my nose on one occasion the flight attendant politely motioned me to pull it up!  I speculate that they've learned that those who don't wear them react aggressively to being told to.  Airline staff know that situations like this are to be avoided at practically all costs.  The Maskless tend to be older men or younger women it seems to me.

The seats were organized so that every second seat was empty - unless you were a family group.  Even so no more than half the rows were filled.  Plenty of space to stretch out at least.

One hot meal was served.  There was no choice - just one vegetarian meal.  No hot drinks, no alcohol - just water.  There was no service beyond occasional fill-ups of water.  They gave a large plastic bag full of various packaged foods - cereal bars and the like - a cheese sandwich and two mandarins.  Very sparse service.

Arriving Home

Hong Kong International Airport - one of the world's busiest in normal times - was a very different place to what I remembered.  We taxied past multiple long lines of Cathay, HK Airlines and other parked aircraft - some filling unused taxi ways.  Normally the exit of the plane is like an on-ramp of an expressway - everyone rushing to be first to immigration to avoid the queues.  This time it was confusing: where do I go?  There was no crowd to follow.  Approaching the control area, you must first fill in health forms.  If you're in the know you'd already have done everything on-line and have a QR code ready to scan - worth doing!  There's 4 forms for each passenger.

Once forms are filled, you follow a circuitous route from one polite, Cantonese native functionary to the next each of whom has a role - take temperature, check forms, give you a document, check id.  Then immigration - normally 20 lines of electronic ID card checkers and many manned booths each with long lines behind them.  This time - just one booth and a small line of those who had reached this stage.  Incredible to see the huge structure of the airport reduced to directing us strange few.

With immigration completed, for us it was mission accomplished.  For our purposes, ideally, we should just turn around and get on a plane back to our normal home - but this is not allowed!  Once you enter HK you have to at minimum complete the 14 day quarantine.  So on we go!

The Great Testing

We left the baggage area - itself like a great mausoleum to the travel industry - through one of the normal two exits, but this time we were directed, eventually, to an exit into the humid Hong Kong air.  They checked one of the forms and we were shown to the open door of a coach: off to the Asia World Expo building which is part of the HKIA complex.

On exiting the coach, there is are lines of luggage carts.  Most take at least one for their luggage.  On entry to the building - huge cavernous, normally hosting one huge trade fair or another - again, it's a succession of steps, hosted by friendly public servants, directed by uniformed officers of some department or other - health presumably.  The first part of the activity is to get tested, but prior to this you must dump your luggage.  This is where it would help to know what's happening: you won't have access to it again until you leave - and this is likely at least 8 hours later.   Therefore some suggestions on preparation: take with you before you go a small bag - perhaps a backpack, in which you'll place some food, drinks, entertainment (and extra battery packs if your devices won't last 8 hours).  Take this bag when you leave your luggage.  You're going to have a boring wait.   You will also get a number of documents - so the bag should be big enough for these - significantly bigger than A4 as well as the other supplies.  The Wifi in the centre is passable - though WhatsApp video failed to work.  You need to re-log in every hour or so - but it remains free.

Once your luggage is parked you are taken by another coach to the testing area - a different part of Asia World Expo.  It's a short drive.  You are then given a pack by a health officer who also explains how to do it, "it" being the DTS test: Deep Throat Saliva.  They provide a sealable plastic bag containing another bag, a plastic test-tube with a screw lid, a paper funnel, some wipes and some tissues.  In case that explanation is not sufficient there is a 5 minute video explaining what to do.  Honestly, these explanations make it sound more complex than it is.  You're then directed to booths to create the sample.

What you do is spit in the tube.  Okay, you're supposed to "hack" and thereby produce deep throat saliva - but in this there can be a problem as there was in my case: my mouth and throat were quite dry after the dry air of the flight!  Again some preparation: adequately hydrate towards the end of your flight into HK!  The risk is that you are unable to produce enough deep throat saliva and the test is not valid - in which case you'll have to do it again and wait another 8 hours!

When you enter the booth there is a small table and a waste bin next to it.  You open the plastic bag and take out of it another sealable plastic bag.  This you should open wide and fold back the opening so that it stays open and sits open and accessible on the table.  This is not so easy, for one thing due to the geometry of the bag and also because in the huge room you're in, winds develop that can blow the bag over.  So that takes a bit of fiddling.  Then you take out an alcohol wipe and thoroughly wipe your hands.  This is to avoid the possibility of contamination.  Even before this you should take every opportunity to wash your hands - there are plenty of alcohol hand-cleanser dispensers around.

So now you've got to "hack" - that is, suck into your mouth as much saliva as you can exude from as deep as possible in your throat.  You unscrew that top of the plastic test-tube and place the paper funnel into its top.  Then spit in it until it's at least half full.  This was difficult for me due to my throat dryness.  Nevertheless I did eventually get it half full - though the "depth" my saliva came from didn't seem very great.

Once you think you have enough, very carefully remove the funnel, so that no drops of saliva go on its outside and then carefully screw the cap on so it is airtight and firm.  If you do get saliva on the outside, you take one the tissues (not the alcohol wipes because they can deface the tube's labeling) and dry it thoroughly.  Then put the tube upright in the plastic bag you set opened - i.e. so that the writing on the bag is upright.  You should keep the tube upright at all times.  You seal the bag and wrap it around the tube, then - keeping the tube upright - put this bag into the sealable section of the original bag - arranging it so the tube of saliva remains upright.  You then take this to the health officers who will direct you to put it in a particular box.  It's identified to you by a document that has been placed in the bag earlier.  Once this is done you return by coach to the original area.

Purgatory

Then you wait.  You sit and wait on a plastic chair in front of a small table each set 1.5 metres away from the others.  And you wait.  Once in a while they deliver either bottled water or white bread cheese and ham sandwiches.  Not inspiring.  It's a long wait with no intervening activities other than a couple of further forms to fill out.  You need that bag I mentioned with entertainment devices (or a book) - and some food and drinks.  A small cushion would also be good since those seats are quite hard.

The elderly Cantonese man next to me found it outrageous.  "it's not like this anywhere else in the world!"  He yelled (in English).  What he was saying in Cantonese I'm not sure, but I doubt it was complimentary towards the authorities.  Of course, I'm not sure he'd traveled much internationally during the pandemic - it's rather similar anywhere they've elected to lock down their population.

My understanding is that if you arrive after about noon the test won't be finished before the end of day and you will be accommodated in a hotel - luckily we arrived in late morning.  Also, if your sample wasn't good enough, you'll have to provide another - and the wait would probably be too long and the overnight stay would be necessary.  As it turned out in my case, dry mouth and all, the test worked and was negative.  They affixed a wrist band to my wrist and directed me to download an app called Stay Home Safe.

Free for an Hour

We triumphantly exited and took the Airport Express to our address to begin our quarantine.  That was a bit odd - taking public transport (and then a taxi) during quarantine.  I suppose they believe that statistically the chance of an asymptomatic individual spreading the virus in that short time is very small.

Arriving at our place, I opened the app and pressed the button indicating that I was home - I've forgotten the text - perhaps "At Home"?  It then directs you to place your wrist band (and those of your family) near your phone.  Then it says "walk slowly around your home for 60 seconds".  I wish I could have prepared for this - I would have gathered everyone in the middle first, and would have worked out a plan to properly traverse the whole space.

Following this, every few hours the app wakes up and instructs you to scan the QR codes on the wrist bands  - within 10 seconds: it's a bit of a rush!  Presumably it then checks the location of the phone is adequately within the location bounds it had established during the "walk".  This is how they compel you to stay in your home.  I imagine there are various was to flout it - slip off your wristband and let someone else do it for you e.g..  But the fines are stiff for any transgression that's found out - and for a reason!  This is to continue the excellent job the HK authorities have done to protect their population.  Therefore I had no intention to break the rules.

Hard Lock Down

Once at your home, unless there is someone to help, you have the problem of needing food.  The various apps work - Uber Eats, Deliveroo and also some local ones: Open Rice, Foodpanda and others.  Also, some supermarkets do delivery - but it can take days.  There's no easy resolution to this.  If possible, work it out in advance with a local friend to get an initial groceries delivery - or it will be delivered meals for a few days.

It may be possible to work out informal delivery by calling local shops or supermarkets (even big name chains like Wellcome).  But it will be difficult without Cantonese - or if you're lucky Mandarin.

If you don't have such a friend, remember, in advance to get a paid up Uber Eats or Deliveroo app and account: for most other delivery means you need a local phone number - but you'll have no way to get one.  For Uber and Deliveroo they can pay through your existing payment method and even call you by routing within the app.

Analysis of Government Strategy

As I've mentioned Covid-19 is the ideal virus.  This makes dealing with it on en masse in a coordinated way is extremely difficult.  Most countries have - after at least some prevaricating - decided to go to (different forms of) lockdown.  If you stop people being close to each other the virus can't be transmitted - simple.  In order to put this into practice, citizens have to accept it and obey.  These programmes have been enacted with a combination of enforcement and shame - but with the Ideal Virus this can be tricky!

The Disease or the Cure?

The fear that the cure might be worse than the disease is very real.  This was understood by governments very quickly and caused delays in lockdown in some cases.  However, after a short period of analysis, almost every government went ahead with lockdown.  Why?

The answer which is put forward is that we go ahead with lockdown in order to avoid large numbers of deaths.  I put it to you that this is not the reason.  I believe (this is my conjecture, without any evidence or supporting data) that in fact governments enact lockdown because the economic effects of other courses would be worse.  I believe that governments have compared models of the likely outcomes of lockdown vs "do nothing" and various other programmes and found that lockdown is the likely least expensive.

Lost Years

First: how can they ignore the huge numbers of deaths?  If you let yourself think it through, this is obvious.  It may sound callous, but in terms of lost years of life, given Covid-19 affects the aged and ill disproportionately, the numbers would be much less shocking than the numbers of lives lost that are projected.
Factor this against the cost - the worst economic shock since the Great Depression at least - and the public might actually be persuaded to accept much more limited control - protection of the weakest, but let the fit go about their business and the economy continue.

Why Lockdown?

Imagine the scenario, in, say, London, Paris or New York: normal life continues - with nursing homes protected.  Nevertheless, many elderly and a few - proportionally but that's many in total - younger fit people get very ill.  They fill all the hospital beds.  They fill temporary hospitals.  For a period of a couple of months at least, they fill stadiums.
A possible sequence of events as a society proceeds up the exponential curve:
Week 1 - no fuss.
Week 2 - sad stories about elderly grandparents passing away.
Week 3 - memes of aghast outrage as ill people told there's no room at the hospital die at home.
Week 4 - fear, distrust, rumour.  Neighbors pitted against sick neighbors; people dying on the steps of hospitals; calls for ambulances not responded to; car accident victims left to die.
Week 5: bodies put out in the streets and left; thousands dying at home alone - people lose confidence; mob protest with corresponding police reaction; looting, army involvement, shootings... society begins to fall apart.
Week 6... 7... 8...

The economic cost would be great - most likely greater than lockdown even in the short term.  In the long term, the cost of the shock, actual damage and lost confidence in government and rule of law is hard to project but would be surely be massive.

That, I believe, is why we are in lockdown.  And we're right to fear alternatives.

Fear and Death

Various statistic on the virus are commonly watched - one is the daily death rate in a region.  My wife asked "but how many people die per day in total other than due to the virus?".  Good question - it is never stated!

It's a very interesting statistic.

Checking the data I find that in 2018 there were 616 010 deaths in the UK, so 1688 per day.  Therefore in the UK now with 938 deaths yesterday, that's an extra 55% making Covid-19 by far the leading cause of death (over 3 times the rate of heart disease and massively greater than the flu)

At the same time, the Covid-19 pandemic by increasing the risk of death by 55% takes your chance of death on any particular day from 25 up to 39 in 100000.  In my mind this means that if you weren't worried about imminent death before Coronavirus, you shouldn't be particularly more worried now - your chance of death remains low.

The Ideal Virus

What a clever little creature it is.

What Makes A Successful Virus

If it were Ebola, there would have been no-one in the streets from day one.  The authorities would have been telling everyone "please, don't let yourself starve - we'll organize spacing in supermarkets".
If it were a novel measles, since it would have been clear that "you will get it", enforcing social distancing policies would have been unnecessary.  But the particular statistics of COVID-19 are just at the sweet spot of doubt: if I get it it won't be that bad... and there's a good chance I won't get it.  After that it's a slippery slope to "just a flu" and suspicion of ulterior motives of governments and the bending of ears to conspiracy stories.

As a result, a long planned holiday it taken here, a visit to an elderly relative there, and that last big one at the pub - and the virus spreads.  The lock down is longer, and the economy tanks.

What I'm saying is that this virus is so successful because its particular levels of transmissibility and severity make it partially a thought virus that spreads in conjunction with it.

In comparison, the more dangerous but otherwise rather similar SARS led quickly to extreme reactions of self isolation without any need for government diktat.  It has died out along with MERS.  Those lulled us into a false sense of security.

"The Cure is Worse Than The Disease"

Economies are locked down.  The population consume but do not produce.  They consume only in specific ways - leaving other sectors of the economy to wither.  Governments make up the difference with debt.  

Less oil is consumed.  Oil wells are shuttered.  Supply is progressively exhausted.

Eventually national economies credit starts to look bad - oil rich states won't drill for nothing - they need an exchange of value, while pounds - or even euros may not cut it.  Fuel rationing entails.  There are rolling brown-outs.  Food prices spike due to the difficulty of transport from farms.  The reason for all the panic buying finally becomes apparent - and real panic sets in.  Society starts to break down with looting, gang violence, and an over-whelmed police.

Could COVID-19 running riot be any worse than this - even for the elderly?  There are scales of this scenario that are less severe but nevertheless economic devastating so how can a balance be found?

What Next?

These arguments, and points I'm not aware of or haven't considered are being analyzed exhaustively within governments in order to work out when a process to handle the virus has been built to a level whereby the economy can progressively be restarted.  Then we can expect sickness, death and progressive recovery over a year or two.  There will be an economic slump, but normality will return.

Lasting Changes

WFH will no longer be a suspect euphemism.  Online classes will surge to a new renaissance firstly in universities, but increasingly in schools.  Technology companies in these areas will do well.  The internet's importance in society will be underlined and investment in it will be budgeted.

Health systems and research will get increased funding.  Government budgets including large health initiatives will be approved more easily.

Some airlines will fail.  The price of international travel will increase since less of it will happen.  Internet based communication will replace much of business travel.  Tourism will decrease.

It's not clear how this may effect relations between nations and ethnicities - will the greater communication lead to a greater sense of global oneness or will it fracture into insular groups.

Time will tell.

Hitting the Wall

The Coronavirus has hit us like a "brick wall across an expressway" as Douglas Adams put it.  I say that because it happened because, while we were licensed drivers in control of our car we weren't looking at the clear and present danger that our experts sitting frightened in the passenger seat were telling us was around the corner.

Probably, we were looking at our phones.

As it has happened, I had just previously taken the opportunity of a career change to construct a SaaS financial service targeting cryptocurrency traders - so I'd been expecting to work from home for several months.  My children were either left home and independent or already capable of studying entirely independently.  My wife's work is in an essential service - she is protected and remains fully employed.  We are lucky.

So: what is happening?  What is going to happen?

The analogy of the Brick Wall was intentional. What we're experiencing is the feeling of the exponential.

It is human nature to try to get used to your situation: there's a shocking event - hitting you like a wall.  You reconcile what has happened, postulate causes and then, subconsciously or explicitly extrapolate to what is likely to happen next.  You can then re-establish a sense of comfort, make plans based on the new expectations - and move on.
But this doesn't work with an exponential, because once you hit the wall, the scale changes, and there's just another wall waiting for you.

To this point the events and consequent adjustments have been: an epidemic in Wuhan - concerning; a few cases in Italy and Iran - poor them, hope they can contain it; a few cases all over the place - maybe we should stockpile essentials; Italy falling apart; everywhere falling apart; impending years of global economic decline.  Each stage was concerning, each significantly worse than the last.  So: what next?

It's hard to distinguish pessimism from realism.  Well, let's try to be objective, based on numbers.
I know so far of just one person who has the disease - a friend's sister: she had it mildly and seems to have recovered.  She was an educator of students who had been in contact with patients.  In Europe, where I am, the number of cases is currently doubling every 3 or 4 days.  So next week I should know of about 5 people with the disease and the week after about 20.  If it keeps going, by the end of April I should know... about 1300 with the disease.  That couldn't be right, could it?

My feeling is that when people you know actually start going to hospital - or dying - suddenly no-one disputes social distancing and the transmission rate should plummet.  But there will be a 2 week lag before that effects statistics, due to the virus incubation period.  The number of deaths could go very high in that time.  Amongst other things, it would be a very bad time to get any other serious illness.