The Ideal Virus

What a clever little creature it is.

What Makes A Successful Virus

If it were Ebola, there would have been no-one in the streets from day one.  The authorities would have been telling everyone "please, don't let yourself starve - we'll organize spacing in supermarkets".
If it were a novel measles, since it would have been clear that "you will get it", enforcing social distancing policies would have been unnecessary.  But the particular statistics of COVID-19 are just at the sweet spot of doubt: if I get it it won't be that bad... and there's a good chance I won't get it.  After that it's a slippery slope to "just a flu" and suspicion of ulterior motives of governments and the bending of ears to conspiracy stories.

As a result, a long planned holiday it taken here, a visit to an elderly relative there, and that last big one at the pub - and the virus spreads.  The lock down is longer, and the economy tanks.

What I'm saying is that this virus is so successful because its particular levels of transmissibility and severity make it partially a thought virus that spreads in conjunction with it.

In comparison, the more dangerous but otherwise rather similar SARS led quickly to extreme reactions of self isolation without any need for government diktat.  It has died out along with MERS.  Those lulled us into a false sense of security.

"The Cure is Worse Than The Disease"

Economies are locked down.  The population consume but do not produce.  They consume only in specific ways - leaving other sectors of the economy to wither.  Governments make up the difference with debt.  

Less oil is consumed.  Oil wells are shuttered.  Supply is progressively exhausted.

Eventually national economies credit starts to look bad - oil rich states won't drill for nothing - they need an exchange of value, while pounds - or even euros may not cut it.  Fuel rationing entails.  There are rolling brown-outs.  Food prices spike due to the difficulty of transport from farms.  The reason for all the panic buying finally becomes apparent - and real panic sets in.  Society starts to break down with looting, gang violence, and an over-whelmed police.

Could COVID-19 running riot be any worse than this - even for the elderly?  There are scales of this scenario that are less severe but nevertheless economic devastating so how can a balance be found?

What Next?

These arguments, and points I'm not aware of or haven't considered are being analyzed exhaustively within governments in order to work out when a process to handle the virus has been built to a level whereby the economy can progressively be restarted.  Then we can expect sickness, death and progressive recovery over a year or two.  There will be an economic slump, but normality will return.

Lasting Changes

WFH will no longer be a suspect euphemism.  Online classes will surge to a new renaissance firstly in universities, but increasingly in schools.  Technology companies in these areas will do well.  The internet's importance in society will be underlined and investment in it will be budgeted.

Health systems and research will get increased funding.  Government budgets including large health initiatives will be approved more easily.

Some airlines will fail.  The price of international travel will increase since less of it will happen.  Internet based communication will replace much of business travel.  Tourism will decrease.

It's not clear how this may effect relations between nations and ethnicities - will the greater communication lead to a greater sense of global oneness or will it fracture into insular groups.

Time will tell.

Hitting the Wall

The Coronavirus has hit us like a "brick wall across an expressway" as Douglas Adams put it.  I say that because it happened because, while we were licensed drivers in control of our car we weren't looking at the clear and present danger that our experts sitting frightened in the passenger seat were telling us was around the corner.

Probably, we were looking at our phones.

As it has happened, I had just previously taken the opportunity of a career change to construct a SaaS financial service targeting cryptocurrency traders - so I'd been expecting to work from home for several months.  My children were either left home and independent or already capable of studying entirely independently.  My wife's work is in an essential service - she is protected and remains fully employed.  We are lucky.

So: what is happening?  What is going to happen?

The analogy of the Brick Wall was intentional. What we're experiencing is the feeling of the exponential.

It is human nature to try to get used to your situation: there's a shocking event - hitting you like a wall.  You reconcile what has happened, postulate causes and then, subconsciously or explicitly extrapolate to what is likely to happen next.  You can then re-establish a sense of comfort, make plans based on the new expectations - and move on.
But this doesn't work with an exponential, because once you hit the wall, the scale changes, and there's just another wall waiting for you.

To this point the events and consequent adjustments have been: an epidemic in Wuhan - concerning; a few cases in Italy and Iran - poor them, hope they can contain it; a few cases all over the place - maybe we should stockpile essentials; Italy falling apart; everywhere falling apart; impending years of global economic decline.  Each stage was concerning, each significantly worse than the last.  So: what next?

It's hard to distinguish pessimism from realism.  Well, let's try to be objective, based on numbers.
I know so far of just one person who has the disease - a friend's sister: she had it mildly and seems to have recovered.  She was an educator of students who had been in contact with patients.  In Europe, where I am, the number of cases is currently doubling every 3 or 4 days.  So next week I should know of about 5 people with the disease and the week after about 20.  If it keeps going, by the end of April I should know... about 1300 with the disease.  That couldn't be right, could it?

My feeling is that when people you know actually start going to hospital - or dying - suddenly no-one disputes social distancing and the transmission rate should plummet.  But there will be a 2 week lag before that effects statistics, due to the virus incubation period.  The number of deaths could go very high in that time.  Amongst other things, it would be a very bad time to get any other serious illness.