The Ideal Virus

What a clever little creature it is.

What Makes A Successful Virus

If it were Ebola, there would have been no-one in the streets from day one.  The authorities would have been telling everyone "please, don't let yourself starve - we'll organize spacing in supermarkets".
If it were a novel measles, since it would have been clear that "you will get it", enforcing social distancing policies would have been unnecessary.  But the particular statistics of COVID-19 are just at the sweet spot of doubt: if I get it it won't be that bad... and there's a good chance I won't get it.  After that it's a slippery slope to "just a flu" and suspicion of ulterior motives of governments and the bending of ears to conspiracy stories.

As a result, a long planned holiday it taken here, a visit to an elderly relative there, and that last big one at the pub - and the virus spreads.  The lock down is longer, and the economy tanks.

What I'm saying is that this virus is so successful because its particular levels of transmissibility and severity make it partially a thought virus that spreads in conjunction with it.

In comparison, the more dangerous but otherwise rather similar SARS led quickly to extreme reactions of self isolation without any need for government diktat.  It has died out along with MERS.  Those lulled us into a false sense of security.

"The Cure is Worse Than The Disease"

Economies are locked down.  The population consume but do not produce.  They consume only in specific ways - leaving other sectors of the economy to wither.  Governments make up the difference with debt.  

Less oil is consumed.  Oil wells are shuttered.  Supply is progressively exhausted.

Eventually national economies credit starts to look bad - oil rich states won't drill for nothing - they need an exchange of value, while pounds - or even euros may not cut it.  Fuel rationing entails.  There are rolling brown-outs.  Food prices spike due to the difficulty of transport from farms.  The reason for all the panic buying finally becomes apparent - and real panic sets in.  Society starts to break down with looting, gang violence, and an over-whelmed police.

Could COVID-19 running riot be any worse than this - even for the elderly?  There are scales of this scenario that are less severe but nevertheless economic devastating so how can a balance be found?

What Next?

These arguments, and points I'm not aware of or haven't considered are being analyzed exhaustively within governments in order to work out when a process to handle the virus has been built to a level whereby the economy can progressively be restarted.  Then we can expect sickness, death and progressive recovery over a year or two.  There will be an economic slump, but normality will return.

Lasting Changes

WFH will no longer be a suspect euphemism.  Online classes will surge to a new renaissance firstly in universities, but increasingly in schools.  Technology companies in these areas will do well.  The internet's importance in society will be underlined and investment in it will be budgeted.

Health systems and research will get increased funding.  Government budgets including large health initiatives will be approved more easily.

Some airlines will fail.  The price of international travel will increase since less of it will happen.  Internet based communication will replace much of business travel.  Tourism will decrease.

It's not clear how this may effect relations between nations and ethnicities - will the greater communication lead to a greater sense of global oneness or will it fracture into insular groups.

Time will tell.